ARF – Bayesian Risk Scoring Demo (Dark Mode + Mobile)

Deterministic Probability Thresholding & Hybrid Bayesian Inference – fully client-side simulation. Illustrates core concepts only.

📊 Risk Scoring ⓘ

Category (prior): Failures (observed): Successes (observed):

Risk score (posterior mean): 0.20
95% credible interval: [0.13, 0.28]
Policy decision: Escalate (0.2 ≤ risk ≤ 0.8)

📌 Deterministic Probability Thresholding: Approve if risk < 0.2, Escalate if 0.2–0.8, Deny if > 0.8.

HMC prediction (offline, simulated): 0.35 Weight of HMC (0-1): 0.30

Online risk (conjugate): -
Hybrid risk (weighted avg): -

🧠 Blends online Beta‑Binomial updates with offline HMC‑learned patterns (simulated slider). In production, weights are data‑driven.

Select a scenario:

Click to see similar incidents.

📖 Retrieves top‑k similar past cases (embeddings + FAISS simulation). Outcomes adjust risk estimates.

Samples: Burn‑in steps:

Simulate a fault type → final risk, decision, healing actions.

Fault type:

Click to see analysis.